Note: Go back and read Part I to find out how we got here.
Now that news of Nebraska's move has come out, more sources from ESPN say that Colorado - a fellow member of Nebraska's in the Big XII - has officially decided to accept an invitation to join the Pac-10.
These are just the starting dominoes, folks. There is still a TON of movement left, and right here, right now on June 10, 2010, I'm going to tell you exactly how it's going to end up. School by school, each school will be accounted for, and this blog is going to make you the smartest person in the room when it comes to conference expansion and realignment.
The Pac-16 and the Big 16 Come To Life
It's already begun with the Big 10, and it won't stop with just Nebraska. Here is what the "Big 16" is going to look like in five years:
Big 16 Division 1: Minnesota, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern
Big 16 Division 2: Indiana, Purdue, Michigan, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Cincinnati, Penn State
The Big 10 adds three Big XII members in this scenario. Missouri and Nebraska are no-brainers; these teams have been rumored to be connected with the Big Ten since expansion talk started, and they should come as no surprise. The other new teams are the ones that should raise the most eyebrows - Kansas, Notre Dame, and Cincinnati. This will be explained momentarily.
The Pac-10 has also made initial invitations to other schools, but here is what that conference (which I will call the Pac-16) will look like 5 years from now:
Pac-16 Division 1: Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State, Cal-Berkeley, Stanford, Southern California, UCLA
Pac-16 Division 2: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
This comes as no surprise as the beginnings of this have already begun to take shape. With Nebraska's move to the Big Ten (combined with Colorado's move to the Pac-10), the rest of the Big XII senses the beginning of the end of the conference. Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State will all accept their invitations to join the Pac-10, forming the new Pac-16 and substantially crippling the Big XII to the point where it is no longer a viable conference.
With the Big XII essentially dead, the rest of the conference that remains - Iowa State, Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, and Missouri - start looking for new homes, and quickly. Missouri is at this point almost a sure thing to join the Big 10, who will be forced to expand to 16 rather than sticking at 12 teams to stay competitive with the new Pac-16 super-conference. With Missouri, the Big 10 now faces some tough choices. Teams like Iowa State and Baylor don't fit the Big 10 mold, and as a result I think they are left to find another conference. Kansas and Kansas State is a different case altogether.
Kansas and Kansas State: Friends or Foes
The big hangup between Kansas and Kansas State is their sentiment to stay together if at all possible. What will likely play out is that Kansas will get an invitation to the new Big 16, but Kansas State does not. The reasons Kansas gets an invitation and Kansas State doesn't are easy to understand: Kansas has a better athletic program, more potential revenue for the Big 16, and comes with a Missouri rivalry already in place. Although Kansas football isn't as strong as some other programs in the Big 16 - and without a doubt it's football money that is driving this entire realignment - the opportunities for them in other sports like basketball is too lucrative for the Big 16 to ignore.
With that invitation, the next question that follows is obvious - would Kansas leave Kansas State in the lurch and jump to join the Big 16 super-conference? When faced with a decision to join a super-conference assured of remaining among the nation's elite or staying with a school in your home state just because you share borders, I think it makes too much sense for Kansas to join the Big 16, and they will leave Kansas State to fend for themselves.
Kansas State joins Iowa State in a second-tier conference, like Conference USA or (more likely) the Mountain West.
Notre Dame Swallows A Bitter Pill - And None Too Soon
In case you've been keeping count, you will realize that the Big 16 only has 14 teams at this point. This is where Notre Dame comes into play. All along, the Golden Domers have maintained that they want to preserve their conference independence. For years, the Fighting Irish have valued their position as the exemption to the rule of college football, relying on their wealth (of tradition) and competitive national product as currency for television deals and BCS tie-ins. However, not even Knute Rockney can save Notre Dame from conference expansion.
If Notre Dame stays as an independent, they stand to lose as much as $8M a year in television revenue, and even more with potential bowl tie-ins and other forms of revenue. And that's just in football. For other sports, Notre Dame competes in the Big East Conference, the next target for the Big 16's expansion. If the Big East starts to crumble, the other major conferences left - the Atlantic Coast Conference and the Southeastern Conference - will undoubtedly scoop up the remainders (and this is reflected in the plans for those conference, to be addressed later).
Notre Dame is home to a lot of very intelligent people, not the least of which is athletic director Jack Swarbrick. He will see the writing on the wall with the Big East, and understand that in order to continue Notre Dame's tradition of excellence and competition of the highest order, he will make the tough decision to join the Big 16 and sustain Notre Dame's reputation as an elite college athletics power.
The Big East also starts to get nervous, as the Big 16 completes its population with Cincinnati, a program that is competitive in multiple sports including football and adds a natural rival for Ohio State. Cincinnati, arguably the Big East's best current football program remaining, signals the beginning of the end for the conference at the hands of the ACC and the SEC.
The ACC and the SEC Stand Off...Then Think Better Of It
With two super-conferences now fully formed, the ACC and SEC appear to be at odds with each other. By inhabiting similar geographical areas, it makes sense that they would be at each other's throats, ready to kill off the other one, right?
Wrong, and this is where conventional logic will come into play.
Logic states that the SEC - undoubtedly the stronger product on the football field - would have the upper hand in an expansion scenario; with a higher earning potential with a new TV deal (to be negotiated by the calculating commissioner Mike Slive) and an already superior on-the-field product, they should have their choice of ACC schools. However, geography will play a large role in the SEC's decision, and it might surprise you to find out that the SEC does not gain anything substantial from adding ACC schools.
Why The ACC Remains Intact, Despite Potential SEC Interest
The schools that the SEC would reportedly be interested in adding (according to multiple SEC sources) from the ACC are Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech, and Clemson. However, there are multiple reasons why the SEC will think better of trying to add these four teams.
1. ACC's new TV deal. Not substantially worse than the SEC's similar deal with ESPN, and definitely not so bad that teams would be crawling over each other to leave the conference. ACC commissioner John Swofford will be quick to bring this up to anyone who tries to mention that the ACC is not viable, and there is almost assuredly a clause about expansion if that situation arises.
2. SEC's old TV deal. The way their deal with ESPN is currently set up, there is a clause about expansion (as Commissioner Silve pointed to a few weeks back) but chances are if the SEC were to expand to 16 teams they would want to re-up and change some terms of the agreement, which would probably cause ESPN to balk. Furthermore, it's not in ESPN's best interest to take away quality from money they just spent (see #1) to add to money they've spent as well; this isn't a case of re-appropriation for ESPN, but rather product dilution, something that those in Bristol, CT could advise the SEC against looking at the ACC for expansion options.
3. Academic emphasis. Being a part of the Association of American Universities counts for more than people think. Schools like Clemson and Florida State have benefited greatly from being a part of the ACC and the AAU. This is the main reason Miami actually remains a member of the ACC; their chancellor puts a huge emphasis on academic achievement, something that would suffer with SEC membership.
4. History. Clemson is an original member of the ACC, Georgia Tech might as well be, and FSU had the chance to join the SEC 20 years ago and decided not to. Leaving that to go to the SEC is certainly conceivable, but with the current system every one of those schools still plays their rival and benefits from being in a more complete conference. Being a part of those traditional ACC rivalries - particularly for Clemson and Georgia Tech - will go a long way to ensure the ACC remains together, and makes the SEC's job a lot harder to try to pry them away.
5. Fit. The SEC wants to add teams that will really boost the competitiveness of the league, and hypothetically they feel those teams are the four I've mentioned (FSU, Miami, Georgia Tech, and Clemson). They also feel like those teams would jump at the chance to join the mighty SEC. That attitude could turn off these teams - especially Georgia Tech and Clemson - who have been very happy with the ACC, and been happy with the lengths the league has gone through to make sure they are happy being in the conference. Again, this makes the SEC's job a lot harder when trying to add teams from the ACC.
6. New TV markets. Really this is the major reason that will cause the SEC to look outside the normally reported schools. The four schools in the ACC - if a part of the SEC - do not bring any new television markets for the SEC at all. That means little to no opportunity for additional television revenue for the SEC, and an even less likely scenario for the conference to renegotiate a newer, more lucrative television deal.
It is for these reasons that I believe the ACC and the SEC do not end up raiding each other, but rather focus on splitting up the rest of the Big East, which is already teetering on the brink of extinction itself.
The New ACC and SEC Become Realities, and the Big East Loses FBS Football Once and For All
With both the ACC and the SEC possessing a stable detente, both look to raid the remaining members of the Big East to become 16-team super-conferences.
ACC Atlantic Division: Boston College, Clemson, Connecticut, Florida State, Maryland, North Carolina State, Rutgers, Wake Forest
ACC Coastal Division: Dook, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech
The ACC moves quickly to add Big East teams that fit their athletic and academic profile, and come away with a strong haul. Expanding with Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse, and Connecticut improve the league's competition in football and basketball, and geographically fit the conference footprint as well.
SEC East: Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisville, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, West Virginia
SEC West: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Baylor, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, South Florida
The SEC gains natural rivals for both Kentucky and Florida, as well as expanding their footprint into Texas with Baylor and West Virginia with WVU. Their product in football is enhanced with all four of these teams, while Louisville, West Virginia, and Baylor also substantially improve the basketball product of the SEC.
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And so, after much deliberation and explanation, you now know how this entire college realignment process will turn out. You are now one of the experts in college expansion, and can dazzle your friends with your depth of knowledge into this complex and ever-evolving situation.
And it's all thanks to Hail To The Brightest Star Of All. Don't forget that. Pawn these ideas off as your own, but then direct your audience to this blog...that of course, agrees with you and your infinite wisdom about college realignment.
