Note: This is the second in a two-part series. The previous entry, "UNC Basketball - What Happened?" can be found by following the provided link.




So as of today (January 23rd, 2010), the UNC men's basketball team sits at 12-7. Not a terrible record, but if you're used to winning national championships, it may as well be 8-20. Oh wait...(Before you get all riled up, I don't think this team will be as bad as the 2002-2003 team that only won 8 games. I mean, this team's already won 12 games last time I checked...can't take 'em away, that's for sure). There are 12 games remaining on the schedule, with the Heels playing only 5 of those games in Chapel Hill.

Situations like this at Carolina breed the "extremist" fans. It's easy to pick these people out; they are the ones who think seasons like 8-20 are still possible, and that they can happen with this group of athletes. These fans, while passionate, are just plain wrong. UNC will not lose the rest of their games this season. It's essentially impossible. The odds of that happening are 1 out of 4096, or roughly 0.0002%. I don't care how un-talented you think this team is, that is simply not going to happen.

Of course, there are "extremists" on the opposite side of the fence. By this point, most of these fans are long gone. They think that this team is poised for a run, and can come together for a stretch run through the last 12 games and really surprise everyone. Anyone who thinks that is also completely wrong. This team has talent, to be sure, but to say that they can pull it together and go 10-2 or 9-3 the rest of the way is simply ridiculous; there are too many good teams left on the schedule for UNC to go on that kind of a run with this team.

With the current schedule, and the way teams like Dook, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, and Florida State are playing (and all of them are still left on the Heels' schedule), things do not look good for the Heels. However, there are five games that the team should focus on winning. Win these, and the NCAA tournament is still within reach (with some help).

...

Okay, fine. I'll tell you what they are.

1. January 26th - @ North Carolina State. Obviously the most important game if you subscribe to the philosophy that the next game is the most important. However, this game is important for a number of reasons. First and foremost, it's a rivalry game that UNC simply does not want to lose; the Heels would never hear the end of it from their neighbors in Raleigh, and there would be much more confidence for the Wolfpack the next time these two teams meet this season (February 13). Additionally, if Carolina loses this game, they are 0-4 in the ACC (...OUCH) and are in severe danger of simply folding for the rest of the season - which absolutely must not happen if this team is in fact going to make a run at the NCAA tournament. Simply put, this game on Tuesday night is as close to a must-win scenario as the Heels are going to see all season, for the sole reason that a loss could absolutely seal their fate as an NIT (or worse) team.

2. January 31st - vs. Virginia. UVA has a lot of talent, and are led by Sylven Landesburg, one of THE best guards in the ACC. In fact, Landesberg is exactly the kind of player who can light up the Heels (even in a good year) because he is a threat to score from anywhere on the court. The Heels must not lose to Virginia for the simple reason that this is a home game, and every single game in the Dean E. Smith Center from here on out is of utmost importance - lose at home in the ACC, and you can kiss any chance of legitimate postseason play good-bye. The Heels must come into this game ready to defend the perimeter as best they can, or else Virginia will waltz to a victory.

3. February 4th - @ Virginia Tech. You'll notice if you look at the schedule that this is the third consecutive game remaining for the Heels. You'll also realize that these three games (with VT included) are the best opportunity for the Heels to rally to get back to .500 in the ACC. Virginia Tech is arguably the worst team in the conference this year (Miami is pretty close), but coach Seth Greenberg is one of the best in the business, and the Hokies historically have not laid down in ACC play. Once again, the Heels must be ready to stop a perimeter threat in Hokie guard Malcolm Delaney if they want to come out of Blacksburg with a win.

4. Feburary 10th - vs. Dook. This is the game that everyone will be watching. As of today, UNC only has four games to get ready for the Blue Devils to come to town. This is the most intense rivalry in college sports, and the onus will be on players like Deon Thompson, Will Graves, and Marcus Ginyard to get the team ready to play in this game. The Dean Dome will be especially loud, not only because their most hated rival is in town, but because of the added urgency this game presents. If somehow the Heels are able to pull off a victory against Dook, this season would be (partially) salvaged and it would give the Heels a great NCAA tournament resume-building win. The Blue Devils present a lot of tough matchups for the Heels (namely with ACC POY candidates Kyle Singler and Jon Scheyer), so how Carolina addresses those two players will be paramount to the outcome of this game.

5. February 24th - vs. Florida State. I have a hunch that by this point the Heels will really be in need of a big win. Last season, the Heels needed a last-second three by Ty Lawson to beat the Seminoles. This year, the 'Noles come back angrier, more talented, and more explosive than they were last season. I also have a sneaking suspicion that the Heels might have finally figured out how to beat teams like this by this point in the season (otherwise, this game will be essentially meaningless as the Heels struggle to remain eligible for the NIT). If FSU comes into this game ranked (which is entirely possible), it presents another tremendous opportunity for the Heels to get another resume-building win and prove to the NCAA tournament selection committee that they belong.

If (and that's a big if) the Heels win all five of these games, their win total will be at least 17, which in a tough ACC might be enough to warrant a low-seed consideration for the Big Dance. If the Heels can get to 20 wins (perfectly possible with teams like Maryland, Boston College, Miami, and NC State twice left on the slate), they may not need to place as large an emphasis on the ACC Tournament in March. Without those wins, however, the Heels will definitely need a lot of help to get into the NCAA tournament, and could be in danger of missing it for the first time since 2003.

This season is certainly far from over. However, every game from this point forward is essentially a must-win if the Tar Heels are going to make the NCAAs. There is virtually no room for error, and this team will be made aware of that by the coaching staff. Whether they choose to do something about it, however, will define whether this season was just a small step backwards or a free-fall from the top of the college basketball world.